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Finding the Right Approach

Before anyone does anything successfully in life (excluding lottery winners etc) they must learn about their subject - this takes time but is absolutely vital. I strongly urge anyone who wants to make a success of following horse racing systems to first ensure they know the basics. You can read the frequently asked questions here, ask on the forum or of course search on the web, read books etc. Whatever you do, make sure you dont start betting while you have any niggling questions in your head - no harm in asking.

Once you are at a stage where you are comfortable with the basics not only of horse racing systems but also horse racing itself, you can begin to look deeper. My aim in this first article is to make people think, especially those who are losing money and can't understand why. Here are some common pitfalls to look out for and avoid and a few rules to take from them.

Betting Lies

I won't insult your intelligence by blethering. Avoid anything that has any chance of being a lie.

Obvious Horse Racing Hype

Lets say you stumble across a website with flashing pound signs and a testimonial explaining they have won their members £20,000 in the last 8 days using an unbeatable system. The results are verified to a tipping league and they claim they just want to help you out, its a limited offer and if you dont sign up now you will apparently miss out on the opportunity of a lifetime. You read the forum and see 8 or 9 messages stating all their dreams have come true. This is obvious hype - if you are taken in by this you need to seriously consider whether you should be betting at all.

Less Subtle Horse Racing Hype

When people overreact to a snippet of information without fully researching what they have been told, this is also falling victim to system hype. For example during the build-up to a big race the trainer is interviewed and announces he will retire following the race and he hopes to go out with a bang. Before too long someone mentions a different trainer who in the past retired and won a big race. People then back the horse based on this and in doing so fall victim to system hype.

System Randomness

From my viewpoint if there is no possible feasible reason to explain the profit/loss of a horse racing system then it is open to randomness. Its the name of the game that we all have different interpretations of what may or may not be valid, but if you cant write down in a couple of sentences what the rules are and make logic sense, then in my opinion its impossible to believe historic results can be trusted. This is a huge reason to always ask for system rules prior to parting with your cash on a supposed system selection. A ridiculous example (i havent checked this!) but if its profitable to back any horse with its 4th letter being G on a Monday after 4pm while its sunny then you can be pretty sure it is totally random!

Data Inaccuracies

Something I have suffered from and a key reason I built this site. Your results show you may have found something special, the reality is its very ordinary. Find a source you trust and spot-check a few selections and searches you carry out.

System Testing Period

Its vital to ensure the results set you have backtested against are sufficient. But its also vital to ensure once you start backing you give the system a fair chance to perform - many people give up after a few losers. The number required varies depending on the system but whatever your criteria you should initially create a bank with which to test your theory. There are many suggestions regarding the size of this bank but my own thought is to take the longest losing run and multiply by 3. If it does run out with this size of bank, its fair to assume you have given it a fair shot but its time to rethink or look elsewhere.

Horse Racing Public Awareness

What i refer to here is how long your system will remain profitable. Its important you do your bit to try and keep it this way. If you stumble across something and then post it all over the web its likely others will follow suit and soon your system will have lost its edge. This is another reason to be weary of services selling you systems. How many people have they sold it to? When they compiled the results its likely nobody was following it!

Betting Exchange Price Variance

This can work in a positive way for backing systems but in terms of laying systems you MUST be aware of the difference between exchange prices and SP. Its very hard to give a definitive percentage difference because it varies wildly, but if your system is throwing up lays at 50/1 i can assure you it will be almost impossible to lay at these prices on the exchanges. Depending on your system you will need to take this into account before attempting to start laying as a couple of losers and you could really get your hands burnt.

Horse Racing System Lifetime

Nearly every system will have a lifetime and its important to regularly monitor for changes in the performance of the system or circumstances, which may affect it. As an example imagine you were backing a jockey who was consistently profitable. Eventually this will change and the sooner you catch on the better- it could be because the bookies catch on and the odds are affected, maybe he was an apprentice and loses his claim, perhaps he got a lot of rides from a certain owner and falls out of favour or it could just simply be he gets old and his ability begins to decline. Any system can be wiped out instantly and although we can not always control all of these things in advance we can watch for the change in performance.

Gambling Over-eagerness

So you find something and get excited. It doesnt matter, this needs to be treated the same as any other system, compile a strategy in terms of how much you will wager on each selection and stick to it. The bookies are in dreamland as a result of gamblers over-eagerness to get one over on them. If you normally work on a basis of £5 per point, stick to the same or if you must increase alter your bank and strategy accordingly. NEVER get so excited by the figures before you and lose control, if the system is as wonderful as it seems then in time you will make a profit by sticking to your plan.

Betting Discipline

Imagine you have found a system that involves backing second favourites in a certain type of race. You wake up and view your qualifiers only to discover one of them runs against a horse you like. If you are following the system rules and have a bank set aside accordingly, the horse you like is irrelevant - the bet should be placed. Otherwise you are allowing personal opinion to affect your system and the rules have changed. It is no longer a system with the rule "back second favs in race types xyz" and has became "back second favs in race types xyz when i feel like it".

Separate Horse Racing Betting Bank

If you dont have a separate bank and you are human its likely your money will get spent on something else. I also recommend having a separate account for each type of system, even if its only on an excel spreadsheet. Too many people have lost out and given up due to not having a tight grip on their staking bank.

Summary - Common Sense

Probably the most important thing in any walk of life, common sense can get you very far. As anyone who knows me through the site will validate, i base everything on this - its why we have a donation policy instead of subscription, its why the system builder allows you to do as you please rather than pointing you where to go and its why the forum is a place with complete freedom of speech (except abuse!).

In your approach to horse racing systems it is absolutely imperative you apply common sense - this can summarise every other point i have made. This means knowing your limitations, being aware of the basics in whatever you are doing, taking sufficient steps to accurately analyse the past and keeping a close eye on progress. But above all common sense will stop you from falling victim to losing money as a result of stupidity, being misled, indiscipline, lack of awareness or downright greed.

I'd be delighted to hear any feedback readers may have and the forum is there for any questions, observations or issues you would like to raise.

Chris Bagnall - Manager - HorseRaceBase.com