Odds Help & information

The odds in horse racing are a vital element no matter what race you are studying. Without considering the odds there is no way you can be assured you are getting value - in the context of horse racing odds, value is when you are getting greater odds for the horse than the price you believe it should be. This of course means understanding the odds and the various formats they are shown in is very important.

Contents

1. Horse racing odds conversion table
2. Converting SP odds to exchange prices
3. Odds in the system builder
4. Odds statistics

Listed below is a handy reference displaying fractional odds versus their numerical counterpart (rounded to 2 decimal places). It is important to note that decimal odds may sometimes be displayed (for example when using Betfair) with the stake included, all this basically means is you are adding one to the actual odds. eg 2/1 instead of being displayed as 2.00 would become 3.00. There is an option within HorseRaceBase to set up odds presentation to suit your preference.

A member requested that instead of the Starting Price Odds being included in the Horse Racing Systems download area, the Betfair Estimated Odds Calculation was used instead.

The code to actually offer this as an option would significantly slow down the excel download, therefore if you do wish to do this it is best to use an Excel formula to create the estimated Betfair Odds.

This can be done by adapting the following formula in Excel to suit your requirements. Note in this example the numerical odds are in column D (which is why the formula refers to cell D2). The percentages should be changed to reflect what you believe is the realistic mark up in terms of the price available on Betfair compared to Official Starting Price in each odds range.

Excel Formula to Create Estimated Betfair Odds

=ROUND(IF(D2<1,D2*108%,IF(D2<3,D2*109%,IF(D2<6,D2*110%, IF(D2<11,D2*111%,IF(D2<17,D2*112%,IF(D2<34,D2*114%,D2*116%)))))),2)

Odds in the horse racing system builder

With the Odds setting, you can specify an odds range as required. Your selection will limit the query to horses who had a starting price within the chosen range.

• Choose between 11/8 & 7/2 to select only horses with a starting price equal to or between 11/8 and 7/2.
• Choose between 11/8 & 11/8 to select only horses who had this exact starting price.
• Selecting between 2/1 & 5/2 in the Odds (3LR) setting, limits query to horses who had a starting price equal to or between 2/1 and 5/2 on their third last run.

Decimal Points Ahead

This category allows you to examine the decimal points in starting odds compared to the next runner in the market. As an example if a horse was 25/1 and the next in the betting was 50/1 then the horse being tested is 25 decimal points ahead.

• This test would most commonly be used to query favourites (example looking for Favourites who were 5 points or more ahead of next in market, you would set between 5 and 500).
• Values are rounded up to create a proper test- this is very important to note as for example a 3/1 shot followed by a 10/3 horse would be classified as 1 decimal point ahead.
• Setting between 2 and 5 means you are limiting the system to horses who were between 2 and 5 decimal points (rounded up) ahead.
• Setting between 0 and 0 means the horse was the longest priced in the market (this should be used on its own only and not as part of a between range).

Position In Market

With this category you can limit your query to horses who were a certain position in the market. This is worked out by taking the shortest priced horse and setting as 1 and so forth. If in a 4 horse race there were 3 horses at Even money, the final horse would be 4th position in the market.

• To only include horses in the top 3 in the market set between 1 and 3.
• To only include horses who were 8th in the market set between 8 and 8.

Forecast Odds

This category is in the v4 Builder and currently has a date limitation of 28th December 2011 (this is as far back as the data I hold goes). The forecast odds are the estimated odds allocate to the horse the day before racing. These odds can be dramatically different from the actual starting price for several reasons including (but not limited to) non runners, gambles and changes to conditions. For certain types of races (example a maiden with all horses having no previous form) it is extremely difficult to predict an accurate forecast.

Opening Odds

This category is in the v4 Builder and currently has a date limitation of 28th December 2011 (this is as far back as the data I hold goes). The opening odds are those which the horse opens at in the market live on course. This generally opens about ten minutes pre race.

Fav vs 2nd Fav

This category compares the price of the favourite in the race versus the second favourite. Note if there are joint favourites then it will look at the next price in the market. A point is one movement on the odds table as shown on this page. Example 4/1 to 9/2 is 1 point. 4/1 to 5/1 is 2 points etc.

Betfair SP

Betfair SP is the start price market as decided by the betting exchange

Betfair SP Place

Similarly Betfair SP Place is the start price for the place market as decided by the betting exchange

Odds Move and Odds Move% (O v SP)

These categories are in the v4 Builder and current date limitation is in place of 28th December 2011 (the oldest date I hold info for Opening Odds). These categories look at the difference in price between the opening odds (the opening live market odds are those that come from the track and are used by the whole industry - it is normally around ten minutes before the race starts) and the official starting price. The Odds Move category uses a points calculation, a point is one movement in the odds table above, for example if a horse moved from 6/5 to 5/4 in the market this is 1 point, to 11/8 would be 2 points etc. The Odds Move% category calculates using a percentage - the workings are round((SP_ODDS*100)/OPEN_ODDS)-100.

Odds statistics

As part of the horse racing statistics directory you will find a section devoted to odds.

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